ANALISIS PERAMALAN PENJUALAN PUPUK ORGANIK CAIR DI PERUSAHAAN JIMMY HANTU CABANG TENGGARONG

Sari

Fertilization includes efforts to increase plant development. Fertilizers are divided into inorganic fertilizers and organic fertilizers. Jimmy Hantu is a business engaged in Indonesian agriculture. Forecasting is one method that can help estimate the number of items in the future period in a business. The purpose of this research is to find out the best POC sales forecasting method and determine product sales in the future.

This research was conducted at Jimmy Hantu Company Tenggarong Branch from August to October 2022. The data used is monthly time series data for the period January 2021–June 2022 consisting of production, distribution, and sales data. The data analysis used is moving averages and exponential smoothing.

This study shows the sales pattern for the period 2021-2022 is a trend data pattern with the lowest production in March 2021 and the highest sales in January 2022. The best forecasting method is the Exponential Smoothing method (α=0.1) with sales forecasting 156 units in July, 157 units. in August, and 157 units in September 2022. The error rate of MAD = 10.61, MSE = 179.2, and MAPE = 7.13% with the prediction of the Ijo Royo-royo POC sales forecast, the Jimmy Hantu company Tenggarong Branch has a reference to prepare inventory planning in anticipation of the large demand for POC Ijo Royo-royo products in certain months and to increase marketing by conducting promotions to increase sales